Macro

➡️

Market Outlook

Neutral

Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy: Global Market Shockwaves and Winner/Loser Sector Analysis

Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies are reshaping global supply chains. We analyze winner and loser sectors under 60% China and 10-20% universal tariff scenarios.

🤖 CompareToolz AI•4 de febrero de 2026, 02:00

Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy Overview

In early 2026, the Trump administration has fully implemented 60% tariffs on China and 10-20% universal tariffs globally. This is bringing fundamental changes to the global trade order.

Three Channels of Tariff Impact

1. Inflation Re-ignition

Higher import prices → consumer price pass-through → Fed rate cut delays

Estimated additional CPI impact: 0.5-1.5%p

Fed rate cuts potentially delayed 3-6 months

2. Global Supply Chain Restructuring

Accelerating de-globalization from China

Expanded production base relocation to Mexico, Vietnam, India

Strengthening 'friend-shoring' trend

3. Global Growth Slowdown

0.3-0.8% global GDP reduction effect

Direct impact on export-dependent Korea, Taiwan, Germany

Winner Sectors

🟢 US Domestic Companies

Companies with high US production share benefit directly

Key stocks: Caterpillar (CAT), US Steel (X), Nucor (NUE)

🟢 Korean Companies with Mexico Operations

Leveraging USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement)

Key stocks: Samsung SDI (Mexico plant), LG Energy Solution (US plant)

🟢 Defense/Security Stocks

Defense spending increase alongside tariffs

Key stocks: Hanwha Aerospace, Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Loser Sectors

🔴 China Export-Dependent Companies

Companies with high China revenue share directly impacted

Key stocks: Apple (China production+sales), Tesla (China factory)

🔴 Korean Export Majors

Double hit from US tariffs + China retaliatory tariffs

Automotive, steel, electronics sectors at risk

🔴 Commodities/Energy

Reduced trade volume → weakened commodity demand

Downward pressure on oil prices

Korea Market Implications

1FX: USD/KRW potentially anchored at 1,400+ → short-term benefit for exporters, cost increase for importers

2Semiconductors: Companies expanding US production benefit (Samsung Texas fab)

3Automotive: Hyundai's Alabama/Georgia plants advantageous

4Batteries: Dual benefit from US IRA subsidies + tariff protection

Investment Strategy

Risk management: Reduce positions with high China exposure

US domestic: Increase allocation to tariff-protected US companies

Korea: Selective investment in companies with high US local production

FX hedge: Maintain USD asset allocation against Won weakness

Bonds: Tariff inflation → rising rates → bond weakness caution

📊Related Stocks

💡Methodology

This analysis is auto-generated by AI combining investment bank reports, earnings data, market data, and news sentiment. Not investment advice.

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