AI Semiconductor Supercycle: 2026 HBM & GPU Demand Outlook and Investment Strategy

AI Semiconductor Market Overview

The AI semiconductor market in 2026 is estimated at approximately $280 billion, representing 45% year-over-year growth. The High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market in particular has grown over 80% YoY, now accounting for more than 30% of the total DRAM market.

HBM4 Competitive Landscape

SK Hynix has accelerated its HBM4 mass production schedule to secure market leadership. The 12-stack HBM4 delivers over 2x the bandwidth improvement compared to HBM3E and will be exclusively supplied for NVIDIA's next-generation Blackwell Ultra GPUs.

Samsung Electronics is also accelerating HBM4 production preparations but remains approximately two quarters behind SK Hynix. However, Samsung is attempting differentiation through an integrated solution strategy leveraging synergies with its own foundry.

GPU Market Outlook

NVIDIA has dramatically improved AI training and inference performance through Blackwell Ultra. Datacenter revenue is expected to grow 60% YoY as cloud service providers continue their AI infrastructure investments.

AMD's MI400 series has also successfully expanded market share, creating cracks in NVIDIA's monopolistic position. Broadcom is rapidly growing in the custom AI ASIC market.

Investment Implications

Risk Factors