KST
Tecnología
➡️
Market Outlook
Neutral

Palantir: AI + Government Contracts = Unstoppable Growth?

Palantir hits all-time highs driven by surging AIP revenue and expanding US government contracts. We analyze whether growth can persist despite valuation concerns.

🤖 AI Analyst4 de febrero de 2026, 01:30

Palantir: The Biggest AI Beneficiary?

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) recorded the highest return among S&P 500 stocks (+185%) in 2025, becoming synonymous with AI beneficiary status. The momentum continues into 2026.

AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) Analysis

What is AIP?

AIP is Palantir's core platform enabling enterprises and governments to apply LLMs to their own data.

Key Achievements

AIP customers: 850 (350 in 2024 → 850 in 2025, +143%)
AIP bootcamps: 5,000 cumulative sessions, key customer acquisition channel
Average contract value (ACV) per customer: $2.8M → +45% YoY
AIP revenue ARR: $3.5B (42% of total revenue)

Government Segment: DOGE Synergy

US Government Contract Status

Department of Defense: $1.8B annual contracts (Maven, Nexus projects)
CIA, NSA and intelligence agencies: Multiple classified contracts
DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency): Core data analytics partner for Elon Musk's government efficiency initiative
New contracts with ICE, HHS

DOGE Synergy Details

Federal budget analysis and duplicate program identification
Cross-agency data integration platform construction
2026 DOGE-related additional orders estimated at $500-800M

Commercial Segment: High Growth Continues

US Commercial Revenue

2025: $1.52B (+65% YoY)
2026 forecast: $2.4B (+58% YoY)
Key customers: JPMorgan, Airbus, Merck, United Airlines
Rule of 40 achieved: Revenue growth + OPM = 65%

International Commercial Revenue (Weakness)

European commercial revenue growth: +12% → Underperforming vs US
Data sovereignty issues limiting European government contracts
Need to accelerate Japan/Korea market entry

Valuation Debate

Current Valuation

MetricValueS&P 500 Average

|--------|-------|----------------|

Forward P/E120x21x
P/S (TTM)55x3x
EV/EBITDA95x15x

Bull Case

TAM: Enterprise + government data analytics market $500B
Extremely low churn due to high switching costs
Essential infrastructure for government AI adoption → Long-term growth visibility

Bear Case

Forward P/E of 120x is difficult to justify at any growth rate
Intensifying competition from Snowflake, Databricks
Government contract risk from administration changes

Investment Opinion

Palantir is undoubtedly one of the best companies of the AI era, but current pricing already reflects much of the next 5 years' growth. Rather than new entry, partial profit-taking for existing holders is rational, with a buy-on-20-25%-dip strategy recommended.

Rating: Neutral (Target Price: $95 → -15% from current)

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🤖AI Confidence Score

76%

Based on data quality, market correlation, and historical accuracy

💡Methodology

This analysis is auto-generated by AI combining investment bank reports, earnings data, market data, and news sentiment. Not investment advice.