GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Revolution: Eli Lilly's Market Dominance and Growth Outlook

With the GLP-1 obesity drug market projected to reach $150B by 2030, Eli Lilly dominates with Zepbound leading the charge.

🤖 AI Analyst•2026年2月3日 23:00

GLP-1 Obesity Drug Market: Explosive Growth

The global obesity drug market is projected to grow from $48B in 2025 to $150B by 2030, representing 25%+ CAGR. GLP-1 receptor agonists account for over 90% of the market, recording the fastest growth in pharmaceutical history.

Market Size Projections

YearMarket SizeGrowth

|------|-----------|--------|

2024$28B+110%

2025$48B+71%

2026E$72B+50%

2028E$110B+23%

2030E$150B+17%

Eli Lilly (LLY): The Market Dominator

Zepbound (Tirzepatide) Core Analysis

Indication: Obesity (BMI 30+) and overweight (BMI 27+) treatment

Weight Loss Efficacy: Average 22.5% weight reduction (vs placebo)

2025 revenue: $18.5B → challenging for world's top-selling drug

2026 revenue forecast: $28B (+51%)

Transitioning from weekly injection to oral formulation in Phase 3 trials

Pipeline Expansion

Orforglipron: Oral GLP-1, FDA approval expected H2 2026

Retatrutide: GLP-1/GIP/Glucagon triple agonist, 24% weight loss

Cardiovascular indication expansion: SURMOUNT-MMO trial proving CV risk reduction

Sleep apnea: SURMOUNT-OSA trial showing 51% AHI reduction

Novo Nordisk (NVO): The Biggest Rival

Wegovy (Semaglutide): 2025 revenue $14.5B

Weight loss of 15-17%, inferior to Zepbound

CagriSema (next-gen): Attempting counterattack with 25% weight loss

Supply issue resolution expected to drive 2026 revenue recovery

Industry Ripple Effects

Positive Impact

Insurers: Long-term obesity-related healthcare cost savings (diabetes, cardiovascular)

Fitness: Concurrent exercise demand increase (Peloton, Planet Fitness)

Healthcare IT: Telehealth prescription and management platform growth

Negative Impact

Food companies: Meal replacement effect concerns (Kraft Heinz etc.)

Medical devices: Declining bariatric surgery demand

Existing diabetes drugs: Demand shifting to GLP-1

Investment Opinion

Eli Lilly is the most promising large-cap pharma stock of 2026 given GLP-1 market structural growth and pipeline superiority. Current P/E of 55x appears stretched, but at 35x on 2027 EPS, it's reasonable relative to growth.

Rating: Buy (Target Price: $1,050)

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