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2026 Global Recession Risk Assessment: Soft Landing or Hard Landing?

As US economic slowdown signals emerge, we examine global recession probabilities and asset allocation strategies.

🤖 AI Analysis2026年2月1日 01:00

Recession Probability Assessment

Aggregating recession signals across major indicators, we estimate the probability of a US recession in 2026 at approximately 25%.

Warning Signals (⚠️)

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 → Below 50 contraction for 4th consecutive month
Yield Curve Inversion: 10Y-2Y spread +15bp → Inversion resolved, but historically recession occurs 6-12 months after resolution
Consumer Confidence: 95.2 → Declining trend below 100

Healthy Signals (✅)

Labor Market: Non-farm payrolls maintaining 150K monthly additions
Unemployment: 4.1% → Still at full employment levels
Corporate Earnings: S&P 500 EPS growth +12% YoY
Household Wealth: Wealth effect intact from rising real estate and equity prices

Three Scenarios

Soft Landing (55% probability)

GDP growth at 1.5-2.0%, gradual slowdown
Unemployment stays below 4.5%
Fed stimulates with appropriate rate cuts
Equities and real estate continue modest uptrend

Re-acceleration (20% probability)

AI investment boom drives productivity-led growth
GDP 2.5%+ growth
Accompanied by inflation re-acceleration risk

Recession (25% probability)

Cumulative effects of high rates sharply contract consumption and investment
GDP turns negative, unemployment rises above 5.5%
Stocks correct -20-30%, bonds rally

Asset Allocation Strategy

Recommended asset allocation at current juncture:

Asset ClassWeightRationale

|-------------|--------|-----------|

Equities (US)35%AI growth stocks strong in soft landing
Equities (Korea)15%Value-up and FX benefits expected
Bonds (US Treasuries)25%Rate cut beneficiary + safe haven
Gold10%Recession hedge
Cash/Short-term10%Liquidity for volatility
Bitcoin5%Institutionalization trend

The key is maintaining a balanced portfolio that avoids both excessive optimism and excessive pessimism.

💡Methodology

This analysis is auto-generated by AI combining investment bank reports, earnings data, market data, and news sentiment. Not investment advice.