2026 Global Recession Risk Assessment: Soft Landing or Hard Landing?
As US economic slowdown signals emerge, we examine global recession probabilities and asset allocation strategies.
Recession Probability Assessment
Aggregating recession signals across major indicators, we estimate the probability of a US recession in 2026 at approximately 25%.
Warning Signals (β οΈ)
Healthy Signals (β )
Three Scenarios
Soft Landing (55% probability)
Re-acceleration (20% probability)
Recession (25% probability)
Asset Allocation Strategy
Recommended asset allocation at current juncture:
|-------------|--------|-----------|
The key is maintaining a balanced portfolio that avoids both excessive optimism and excessive pessimism.
πRelated Stocks
π‘Methodology
This analysis is auto-generated by AI combining investment bank reports, earnings data, market data, and news sentiment. Not investment advice.
πRelated Analysis
Fed Rate Outlook: Scenario Analysis After Q1 2026 Hold
With the Fed expected to hold rates at the March FOMC, we analyze divergent market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of second-half rate cuts.
Financial Sector Dividend Play: Analyzing KB, Shinhan, and Hana Value-Up Program Benefits
As Korean financial holding companies expand their participation in value-up programs, dividend yields and share buybacks are driving stock price appreciation.
Korean Defense Stocks Surge: Hanwha Aerospace & HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Geopolitical Tailwinds
Korean defense stocks are hitting all-time highs driven by NATO defense spending increases and Middle East tensions. We analyze order backlog and outlook for Hanwha Aerospace and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.